“Horrific crimes. Murders. Gang assaults towards our police. Youngster intercourse crimes. And the brutal killing of a nursing pupil on her faculty campus.”
That’s the sort of rhetoric Republican convention-goers had been uncovered to in Milwaukee on Tuesday, after an ominous video — narrated with a deep voice that sounded prefer it got here out of a 2000s motion film trailer — depicted a dystopian model of Joe Biden’s America.
The theme of the Republican Nationwide Conference’s second evening was “Make America Protected Once more,” and the roster of audio system repeatedly criticized Biden’s file on crime and immigration: Randy Sutton, a retired police officer, stated there was a “battle on cops.” Iowa Legal professional Normal Brenna Chicken stated that Biden treats “police like criminals, and criminals like victims.” Texas Sen. Ted Cruz declared that “your loved ones is much less secure, your kids are much less secure, the nation is much less secure,” on account of Biden’s presidency.
However the Republican audio system’ rhetoric on crime spiraling uncontrolled was out of contact with actuality.
Whereas there was certainly an increase in crime throughout the pandemic, latest information has proven that crime is declining nationwide. In keeping with the FBI, homicide is down 26 p.c and robberies have declined by 18 p.c within the first three months of 2024 in comparison with the identical time final yr. That didn’t cease Republican audio system all through the evening from singling out incidents of heinous crimes and drug overdoses to conjure up a picture of lawlessness and dysfunction.
So why are Republicans plowing forward with their “Make America Protected Once more” messaging regardless of information that reveals America is already getting safer? The reply is easy: Most Individuals imagine that crime is getting worse, so it’s not a very robust message to promote.
The conference made clear that Republicans are working yet one more law-and-order marketing campaign, drumming up worry amongst voters by leaning on racist tropes and canine whistles. Their insistence that cities are crime-ridden, although, is just not solely a method to spark worry in voters; it’s additionally a window into how they are going to method public security laws if Donald Trump wins in November.
What the Republican method to crime appears like
Because the pandemic, the conservative backlash to progressive felony justice reforms, together with decreasing penalties, has grown. Whereas some Democrats have joined Republicans in passing tough-on-crime laws prior to now yr, Republicans have been harsher and extra excessive of their response to the 2020 crime spike.
Louisiana, for instance, handed a slew of punitive measures that included harsher penalties for numerous offenses and lowered parole eligibility, and even allowed for 17-year-olds to be tried as adults as an alternative of within the juvenile justice system.
Republican politicians have additionally been outspoken critics of progressive district attorneys who’ve taken a softer method to imposing petty crimes. Venture 2025, the Heritage Basis’s blueprint for a second Trump administration, calls on the Division of Justice to compel native DAs to implement the legal guidelines that the federal authorities sees match — together with excessive right-wing insurance policies — quite than depart that as much as native prosecutors, as has lengthy been customary.
A Trump win would embolden Republicans to proceed undoing the felony justice reform that, in latest a long time, lowered the jail inhabitants and lowered penalties for petty crimes. The consequence might be a renewed and additional entrenched period of mass incarceration.
The GOP’s concentrate on crime may not work
Surveys have proven that Individuals all the time are inclined to assume crime charges are getting worse, even when the alternative is true, however there’s a restrict to how profitable law-and-order campaigns might be. Lately, the Republican messaging hasn’t essentially paid electoral dividends.
In keeping with the Vera Institute of Justice, for instance, the 2022 midterms confirmed that Republicans’ fear-mongering rhetoric on crime didn’t appear to resonate with voters. Republicans spent tens of millions of {dollars} on marketing campaign adverts specializing in crime and public security, however in keeping with exit surveys commissioned by Vera Motion, the lobbying group aligned with the Vera Institute of Justice, whereas voters had been involved about crime, they didn’t essentially imagine in additional punitive insurance policies.
Nonetheless, there’s a motive Republicans are focusing their rhetoric on crime: Democrats have been on the defensive on the difficulty, although the info is of their favor.
As a substitute of continuous to champion progressive modifications to the felony justice system, many Democrats have reversed course and pushed for harsher enforcement, fearing voter sentiment round crime. That was the case in New York, for instance, the place the Democratic governor despatched the Nationwide Guard to patrol the subway, and in Oregon, the place lawmakers recriminalized medication after voters in 2020 decriminalized them.
If the second evening of the Republican conference was any indication, it’s that, regardless of falling crime charges, the GOP’s outdated law-and-order marketing campaign playbook isn’t prone to go away anytime quickly.