Regardless of a latest 15% bump, following optimistic Q3 2025 outcomes and a stunt that introduced it tariff reduction, Apple’s inventory remains to be 5% within the crimson for the yr. However in a just lately printed investor notice, Morgan Stanley says it believes momentum will preserve shifting.
Within the notice (by way of CNBC), analyst Erik Woodring mentioned that “the Apple story may very well be turning the nook.” This comes after the financial institution’s China staff just lately raised its iPhone construct forecast for the September quarter by 8%, which in flip got here after June gross sales proved stronger than anticipated.
Right here’s Woodring:
“These optimistic revisions are a results of higher than anticipated iPhone sell-through within the June quarter, which diminished iPhone channel stock under normalized ranges, and thus created a bigger channel fill alternative within the September quarter, because the optimistic construct revision is solely iPhone 16 (2M items) and Professional Max (2M items) fashions.”
Whereas Morgan Stanley says its revised forecast already bakes on this construct enhance, it says there’s potential for additional upside within the December quarter.
The agency is presently modeling 78 million items for the vacation season, however says that quantity may very well be adjusted up, particularly if early demand for iPhone 17 beats expectations.
Apple Intelligence fumble could drive gross sales down the road
Wanting past {hardware}, Morgan Stanley believes a number of different elements are being missed, together with a possible AI partnership or acquisition, and the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence. They are saying this might finally drive renewed curiosity in each iPhones and providers, as soon as flagship options just like the revamped Siri land subsequent yr.
“In our view, Apple is one potential AI partnership away from breaking out,” Woodring wrote.
Woodring additionally downplayed the impression of regulation within the quick time period, and famous that Part 232 tariffs, which have been as soon as a key threat issue, proved a “non-event.”
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