Good morning, and welcome to election week! Tens of hundreds of thousands of individuals have already solid their ballots early, with tens of hundreds of thousands extra sure for the polls tomorrow as Individuals resolve whether or not Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump would be the subsequent US president.
Between the presidential election, congressional races, and poll measures, there’s rather a lot at stake on this election, from the economic system to ladies’s well being care to civil rights to the future for immigrants and their households. Should you’re feeling significantly unnerved going into the week, remember to try our story on the distinctive dread that’s political nervousness and how one can address it.
This story was first featured within the In the present day, Defined publication
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However first, we’re setting the stage with a preview of the themes, races, and storylines that our politics and coverage group can be carefully all through the week.
Andrew Prokop, senior politics correspondent
I’ve been watching with rising alarm how Trump and the individuals round him are voicing certainty that he’ll win — and that, if he loses, it should imply the election was rigged. What I ponder is simply how mobilized his supporters would find yourself being within the occasion of a slim Harris win, simply how far they’d go. As I wrote final week, there are some procedural and authorized causes to anticipate a Trump electoral problem can be even much less profitable in 2024 than it was in 2020, however there’s a actual danger that finally ends up mattering lower than drive and partisanship.
Patrick Reis, senior politics and concepts editor
I’m curious to see how the vote breaks down amongst younger males, significantly younger males who’re voting of their first election. Whereas Kamala Harris does higher with youthful voters total due to a large benefit amongst younger ladies, the New York Occasions/Siena School polls have discovered Donald Trump successful amongst younger males total (58 % to 37 %). There’s a motive Trump and JD Vance each went on Joe Rogan’s podcast — which is massively well-liked, particularly amongst younger males — and why Tim Walz appeared on a World of Warcraft Twitch stream. The campaigns are looking for these voters the place they’re.
Rachel Cohen, coverage correspondent
Ten states have abortion measures on their ballots, making it one of many largest alternatives for voters to make their voices heard on the topic because the rollback of Roe v. Wade. Some may overturn sweeping state abortion bans, whereas others would strengthen protections towards future restrictions on reproductive rights.
Among the many most anticipated contests is Florida, the place abortion is virtually completely banned. Advocates in Florida have raised over $100 million to revive entry as much as fetal viability — round 22 to 24 weeks — however the measure, referred to as Modification 4, wants approval from 60 % of voters, a excessive threshold to fulfill.
Zack Beauchamp, senior correspondent and writer of Vox’s On the Proper publication
There are two X elements that I’m searching for to find out whether or not Harris will outperform her polls. The primary is North Carolina, a state the place Trump is favored however Republicans have nominated a certain loser for governor: self-described “Black Nazi” Mark Robinson. Will Harris get a “reverse coattails” impact, the place voters end up to cease Robinson and vote for her, or will there be numerous of us who cut up their tickets on the governor and state stage?
The second is Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania. Within the wake of the “floating island of rubbish” feedback, the Puerto Rican group appears to have mobilized to a level I’m undecided I’ve ever seen this late in a presidential race. Provided that there are about 473,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania alone, important anti-Trump turnout on this group may find yourself being crucial.
Christian Paz, senior politics reporter
It’s not inconceivable for me to conceive of a state of affairs the place we see a powerful rightward shift of Latino voters in locations like California, Illinois, Texas, Florida, and New York, however much less of a shift in battleground states the place they typically could have a bit extra of a Democratic tilt. I’m very curious to see how Latino voters end up on this election, and whether or not we see extra ideological sorting (Latino moderates and conservatives shifting towards Republicans) and the place they show decisive.
Given how younger this voting group is, I’m additionally curious to see if charges of voting participation improve — if we see nonvoters end up at larger charges, just like the Trump marketing campaign has been relying on.
Abdallah Fayyad, coverage correspondent and writer of Vox’s Inside Our Means publication
Arab Individuals make up tons of of hundreds of voters in key swing states, together with Michigan and Pennsylvania, they usually have tended to vote Democrat in current cycles. I’m trying to see how Israel’s conflict in Gaza would possibly sway voters. A couple of polls present Donald Trump having a slight edge over Kamala Harris. Though a lot of these voters concern the prospect of one other Trump presidency, there’s additionally a way that Democrats must face electoral penalties for what the Biden administration has achieved to Gaza. One pollster informed me that the “punish Democrats” vote may be smaller than we anticipate. Besides, he says, “these are numerous votes Democrats can have left on the desk.”
Ian Millhiser, senior correspondent
One of many largest issues that retains me up at evening is that the Supreme Court docket’s Republican majority, the identical majority that not too long ago dominated that Donald Trump was allowed to commit crimes whereas he was in workplace, will try and flip the election if Harris is the legit winner. Realistically, this end result is solely probably if the election is awfully shut. The Supreme Court docket selected the winner of the 2000 election, which got here all the way down to a nail-biter in Florida. It stayed its hand in 2020, an election through which Biden gained by a big sufficient margin that the Court docket would have needed to flip three states to disclaim him victory.
Nicole Narea, senior reporter, politics and society
Trump’s closing argument has been a redux of his 2016 marketing campaign on steroids: fearmongering about felony immigrants, threatening mass deportations, and racist assaults like his lies about Haitians consuming pets and his assertion that immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of the nation. By participating in such excessive rhetoric, he has managed to drag Harris, and Democrats total, additional to the suitable on the difficulty of immigration.
That’s even if his portrayal of immigration isn’t grounded in actuality. Border crossings have come down considerably all through 2024. Nonetheless, Republicans may learn the election outcomes as both a vindication or a rebuke of Trump’s method.
Angela Chen, senior editor, coverage and concepts
I’m monitoring numerous essential races, however I’m at all times desirous about what’s happening in my residence state of California, significantly relating to housing. This yr, meaning watching Prop 33, which might broaden lease management, and Prop 5, which might decrease voting thresholds so it’s simpler for native governments to construct inexpensive housing. Then there’s the purely symbolic Prop 3. This one would repeal Prop 8, an notorious anti-same-sex marriage measure that handed once I was simply too younger to vote towards it.