It’s no secret that the Apple Intelligence rollout is a gradual one. The primary six options are anticipated to launch on the finish of this month, and we’re not anticipating the brand new model of Siri to correctly debut till some level subsequent 12 months.
However one analyst thinks we should always mood our expectations additional, and that iPhones aren’t going to supply “critical” AI efficiency till 2026 or 2027 …
There had been speak of Apple Intelligence driving a supercycle of iPhone 16 purchases as a result of anybody aside from iPhone 15 Professional house owners would want to improve to get entry to the brand new options. Nevertheless, to date the accessible indicators counsel that this 12 months’s iPhone gross sales are roughly on a par with final 12 months, which means individuals aren’t but seeing AI as a major draw.
Jefferies analyst Edison Lee isn’t stunned by this. The Avenue experiences him saying that expectations of 5-10% progress in iPhone gross sales are “unlikely to be met.”
He does see Apple as having a key benefit in AI over different smartphone manufacturers, however thinks will probably be 2-3 years earlier than that materially drives demand for brand new iPhone fashions.
“We like Apple Intelligence long run, as Apple is the one hardware-software built-in participant that may leverage proprietary knowledge to supply low-cost, customized AI providers,” Lee stated. “Nevertheless, smartphone {hardware} wants rework earlier than being able to critical AI, seemingly by 2026/27.”
Nonetheless, Lee argues that Apple has a longer-term benefit by way of tech and value growth over its Android-based rivals, notably given its partnership with chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor
He does count on Apple to take pleasure in iPhone progress subsequent 12 months, however attributes that extra to the rumored slimmer iPhone 17 Air than to Apple Intelligence.
“We consider AI-capable smartphone tech is probably going 2-3 years away attributable to limitations in high-speed reminiscence and superior packaging tech,” he stated. “[But] Apple’s skinny mannequin (17 Air) in 2025 might appeal to extra improve demand.”
Graphic: Apple and Michael Bower/9to5Mac
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